Will "Chameleon Flow" receive 25,000 listens on Soundcloud within six months of its release?
13
Ṁ3090
resolved Oct 31
Resolved
N/A

This is "Chameleon Flow," the song that I intend to polish to the point where it can be the first AI song to be played on the radio. Let's work together to make it so.

I believe the technology has now reached the point where it is possible to produce a song superior to what a human can produce on his own. This song has not, and will intentionally not, use a traditional DAW or other non-AI tool. Every byte will be generated by a model. It is the successor of multiple previous songs, where each refines the output of the previous in a sort of "reinforcement learning" loop.

Every few days, I will post the latest version of "Chameleon Flow" to this market. I will use this market - and add more liquidity to it once it settles on an initial value - to determine whether the changes I make to each successive version are heading in the right direction, with the goal that Manifold will direct the song to be successful. If the number goes up, then we're probably on the right track. You can help not only by betting, but also by offering comments.

This song may require several months more of work before it is released. This is the real attempt; I'm not going to release when it is imperfect and move on. The date of release will be the date that the song is posted on SoundCloud, even if it receives listens elsewhere before then (for example, someone discovers an early version on Manifold and starts forwarding it to others). If a version is posted there earlier and labeled as a "demo" for feedback, that doesn't count as the release.

If the song changes so dramatically that it ends up with a different title, but that is a result of comments here that just warp it beyond recognition, like a Ship of Theseus, then it will still be the same song for the purposes of this market.

Additional edit: If the song is never released (for example, because the litigation in which I am involved continues to multiply into even more cases), the market will resolve to N/A. The market will only resolve to N/A if the decision is made to never release the song at all, in any form, rather than just to release it as imperfect, which is what I would promise to do if the song has a beginning, middle, and end.


This part of the text will change with each version.

Current version: https://shoemakervillage.org/temp/chameleon_flow_v2.flac

Previous version: https://shoemakervillage.org/temp/chameleon_flow_v1.flac

Changes from v1 to v2:

  • Goal was to get closer to a rough draft that can be heavily modified through infill

  • More energy with second drop

  • Roughly added intro with gap

  • Added bridge but needs more countermelodies and first part of each phrase can be more melodic and on-key

Current known issues:

  • The first drop might be simpler, using the samples like the intro, think through this with input from Manifold members

  • Fix various out of tune vocals, particularly in bridge

  • Truncate second drop by 16 bars

  • Add outro with the ooooooos

  • The final chorus may have too many layers; it is not finished

  • Add male vocalist as harmony in final chorus; the final chorus is not a climax and should be

  • Male vocals in first verse have two phrases where the words are not understandable

  • Infill specific two-bar phrases to add variety

  • Change 2-4 ending words of the male vocals to a higher octave for surprise

  • Last line of pre-chorus should have a massive build instead of the music cutting out before "call it..."

  • Don't repeat first 8-bar phrase twice, add variety for second phrase in the first drop

  • Chop and glitch one or two lines

  • More reverb in spots

Things I believe do not require changes and may be final:

  • The layered harmony in the choruses

  • The number of instruments and rhythmic complexity

  • Uniqueness of instrument samples

  • C# Dorian key

  • Timbre and processing of the male voice

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
🤖

Meowdy! The market creator explicitly says the resolution will be N/A because the closure of Udio and regression in AI music models made releasing the song impossible on a reasonable timetable. Since the market will not resolve YES or NO but N/A, betting on YES or NO is basically futile. The 14.4% market probability for YES doesn't factor this overriding creator comment. Given this, I have very high confidence that the market will not resolve YES, so betting NO is strong—though strictly speaking, the market should resolve N/A. From a binary perspective, NO is the correct outcome to bet on here.

places 90 mana limit order on NO for NO at 85%

As stated in the text, this market would resolve N/A if something prevented me from releasing this song in a reasonable timeperiod.

The closure of Udio and the subsequent regression of AI music models has made it impossible to release the song in a reasonable timetable. Therefore, the resolution of this market will be N/A.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules