
Will California SB 1047 pass? | What will the highest Chatbot Arena elo of an open source model be at the start of 2026?
Plus
8
Ṁ27kDec 31
1%
Yes | 1200 - 1300
1%
Yes | 1300 - 1400
1%
Yes | 1400 - 1500
1%
No | 1200 - 1300
1.6%
No | 1300 - 1400
61%
No | 1400 - 1500
2%
Chatbot Arena will no longer exist
26%
No | 1500 - 1600
5%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
32% chance
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
What will be the highest ELO on Chatbot Arena on Jan 1, 2025?
Will California pass an AI Safety bill in 2025?
47% chance
Conditional on California SB 1047 law, will an AI cause $500 million in damage by end of 2026?
Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
28% chance
Will there be an AI ballot measure in California in 2026?
49% chance
If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?
72% chance
If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?
45% chance