OpenAI releases open-source model exceeding 8B parameters by EOY2026?
13
Ṁ3602026
90%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if OpenAI releases any model with >8B parameters publicly accessible (e.g., on Hugging Face) without manual verification or screening
- For MoE models, sum of expert weight counts applies
- Must be genuinely open-source with weights freely available
-Training code or data is not required to qualify
- Resolves NO if no qualifying model is released by December 31, 2026
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