Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?
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2035
11%
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From an FAA report:

https://www.faa.gov/about/plansreports/congress/risk-associated-reentry-disposal-satellites-proposed-large

"By 2035, if the expected large constellation growth is realized and debris from Starlink satellites survive reentry, the total number of hazardous fragments surviving reentries each year is expected to reach 28,000, and the casualty expectation, the number of individuals on the ground predicted to be injured or killed by debris surviving the reentries of satellites being disposed from these constellations, would be 0.6 per year, which means that one person on the planet would be expected to be injured or killed every two years."

  • Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - Intentional Deorbiting: If a Starlink satellite is intentionally deorbited with the goal of causing harm, it will be counted towards the resolution criteria. (AI summary of creator comment)

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Does this count if a starlink satellite is intentionally deorbited with the goal of causing harm?

@MalachiteEagle Sure, I think that's unlikely, but I would count it.

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