Will Open AI launch a social media app by the end of 2026?
58
Ṁ6279
2027
34%
chance

Sam Altman recently joked about this:

https://x.com/sama/status/1895230925753233763

I would count anything that hosts user-generated content for the primary purpose of sharing it with other human users. For example, some social media apps I've used are Reddit, YouTube, Quora, or Discord.

The current ChatGPT app has the ability to share chats with other people, but it doesn't count because that's not the primary purpose.

I also wouldn't count an app that only involves communicating with AIs such as SocialAI.

  • Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The app must have a comment section for users to talk to one another.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

What about Sora homepage? The explore page has pictures/video generated by other users (albeit it is not 'user-generated' as much as it is 'user-prompted') Users can like the pictures, but there are no comments. It's kinda like Pinterest I think.

@ScipioFabius Hmmm, I guess that technically fits the definition I gave, but it isn't what I had in mind. So I'm going to add another condition - it needs to have a comment section for users to talk to one another.

If anyone bet YES based on the Sora homepage and lost mana, let me know and I'll reimburse you.

I just found out about this market. I created the same for 2028

https://manifold.markets/SimoneRomeo/will-openai-launch-a-social-media-n?r=U2ltb25lUm9tZW8

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules