@Tumbles sent

lmfao i did not expect to be the #2 no holder

I just did some accounting. If right now Pierre somehow won the election and this loan market fell to 5%, my net worth and profit would increase by about Ṁ1,900,000. A few more loans and we'll be looking at a 2 million mana in overnight profit

If you're wondering how that's possible, my current expected value from the election markets is 3 times my net worth. How can my value from one market be higher than my value overall?

My daily loan total attached to this market (and similar markets) is about 300k higher than the value of my shares

Overnight profit spike estimation in the case of a Conservative election win has now surpassed two million mana (estimation assumes my loan market drops to 5%)

@Tumbles Why should it dip to 5%? Your 6x special feature is very bold considering your track record.

@Eliza At the start of the year the market was at 8%. If the conservatives win the election I win a couple million mana, more than enough to pay everyone back. It's a pretty safe prediction, I think.

@Tumbles you're on the record that you will not pay back the 6X participants immediately. That means you're planning on giving yourself 12 months to lose it all again.

@Eliza a track record of being too big to fail!!

Reposting this meme by @snazzlePop for no particular reason

@Tumbles who will be running this complex after your eventual death? You could avoid Yes resolution by having a substitute.

Or do you hope that the complex will be out of debts before that?

@Henry38hw is this… a death threat? Or am i misreading?

@bens I expect this complex's strategy to have a chance to work for decades. So this question arised.

You misread, there is no threat.

@Henry38hw In the event of my death, all debts go unpaid and the market resolves YES. This is to incentivize my creditors to step up to protect my own life and security if called to. They are basically my bannermen.

@Tumbles not only creditors, but also No shareholders

Hey look we're on Manifold's home page! Every name in the description is famous now!

Can someone make the Inverse Tumbles Hedge Fund? I will be your first investor.

@Joshua could you explain?

@Henry38hw Create an account which follows Tumbles around and strategically takes his worst limit orders. Fund this with managrams from investors, who are entitled to 80% of the profits. Create a market for "Will the Inverse Tumbles Hedge Fund be profitable one year from now?" to advertise.

@Joshua If someone creates an Inverse Tumbles fund, I will invest at least 10k mana (within a few days; I'd need to come up with it)

This implies Tumbles survives and does not brick his account.

@Quroe we could pay Tumbles a small rate to tell us how he would bet on various new major markets

@Joshua @Robincvgr I might make a bot that always bets against Tumbles. No guarantees on any returns though.

@nikki this feels exploitable