This market resolves YES if the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the United States is 3% or higher for the calendar year 2026 (Dec 2026 price level compared to Dec 2025). The resolution will be based on the 12-month headline CPI inflation rate published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm.
Goes by the headline figure, typically rounded to 1 decimal.
I will use most suitable replacement if BLS stops publishing this statistic or if it is widely treated as unreliable measure of inflation.
I will bet in this market. If we hit ambiguity around reliability will agree with a group of representative YES and NO holders.
1,000
3.00Come on people what are we doing?
CPI in 2025 is expected to be just under 3% and continue dropping the polymarket for if any YoY monthly inflation report is over 3% is trading at 67% (horrible liquidity tho https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026?tid=1765748222775)
Cleveland fed has inflation for Nov 2026 from Nov 2025 at 2.7% https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations (this is the value for 1 year in the term structure graph)