Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2026?

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Ṁ1306

2026

15%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES it at any time within 2026, mainstream news sources (e.g. Dutch NOS News) report that the Dutch cabinet has fallen (in said year). Resolves NO otherwise.

Update 2025-10-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A "second fall" of a demissionary cabinet (e.g., if a coalition party leaves after the cabinet has already fallen once) will not count toward resolution. Only the first fall of a cabinet counts for this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Politics

#Nederland

#The Netherlands

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Would it count as the cabinet falling if either BBB or VVD left the schoof cabinet in 2026? Like when NSC left the cabinet, it was reported as the cabinet 'falling' for the second time.

@Sqeedee That's an interesting edge case and it also goes for future cabinets that even demissionary formations could break. There's indeed a case to be made for such a "second fall" but I'd say it's more arbitrary to determine than a first fall and therefore should not count.

Any cabinet? Or the previous one?

@TheWabiSabi Any cabinet of the Netherlands.

@Vincent maybe you should have asked, how many cabinets...

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Will a Dutch cabinet fall?

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The odds of this should be lowering now

@Vincent Ah, and they did!

bought Ṁ42 NO

Whatever the dutch cabinet happens to be at the time?

@asmith Yes, whichever cabinet.

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