As of April 13, 2025, Russian forces have initiated incursions into Ukraine's Sumy Oblast, capturing villages such as Novenke. (en.wikipedia.org) This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by October 9, 2025, credible reports confirm that Russian forces have occupied more than 100 square kilometers of Sumy Oblast. Resolution will be based on reports from reputable news outlets and official statements.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by October 9, 2025, credible reports confirm that Russian forces have occupied more than 100 square kilometers of Sumy Oblast. Resolution will be based on reports from reputable news outlets and official statements.

Background

As of April 13, 2025, Russian forces have initiated incursions into Ukraine's Sumy Oblast, capturing villages such as Novenke. Russian forces appear to be attempting to create a buffer zone along the international border in Sumy Oblast. On April 13, 2025, Russia conducted a significant missile strike on Sumy City.

Considerations

Military analysts currently assess that Russian forces lack the manpower for a major offensive operation to seize Sumy City without significant reinforcements. However, they have been making marginal advances in northern Sumy Oblast and have intensified their attacks in the region.