From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, Eastern Time, Jerome Powell is no longer the Chair of the Federal Reserve.
1,000
3.00@Panfilo If I see a large limit order at a point lower than the market, can I fill that directly or do I have to bid the market down to that price?
@WilliamGunn You effectively bid the market down, but why would you ever not want the better deal on all the mana between you and the limit?
@Panfilo I haven't thought through this completely, but I'm thinking if someone has a limit order for, say 10000 NO at 5%, when the market is at 40%, they're saying that when and only when the market thinks it's 5% likely, they want to buy a bunch of NO. Those NO would be sold to them by someone seeking to pick up cheap YES. That person wouldn't want to buy the more expensive YES at 40% -> 5%. What am I confused about/ignorant of?
@WilliamGunn You cannot have a limit order for No at 5% while the market is at 40%. Placing the order would cause you to buy down to 5% as far as you could with your mana against available liquidity.
@WilliamGunn Nope, not sure what you mean. It happens dynamically within the market you're betting in.
@Panfilo I guess what I'm confused about is that it seems like you want to buy 2500 YES at 15% but the market is at 19%. Did your order bid the market up to 19%?
@WilliamGunn No, like an order on the stock market it waits at that number for someone else to come along and buy the opposite direction.
@Panfilo So when someone here says "Limit orders up at 10% if anyone wants them", they are letting people know that if they place a market order that takes the market price down to that level, there will be plenty of liquidity to fill it?
@WilliamGunn Exactly, assuming the market is currently above 10% and their order is Yes. If the market was below 10% they could place No orders there and challenge people to bet it up.
President Trump has privately discussed firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for months, including in meetings with potential replacement Kevin Warsh
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/17/business/economy/trump-jerome-powell-fed.html
President Trump lashed out on Thursday at Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, saying, โPowellโs termination cannot come fast enough!โ
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