Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?
16
Ṁ5970
2026
25%
Fabiano Caruana
21%
Hikaru Nakamura*
17%
Praggnanandhaa R**
11%
Wei Yi
11%
Anish Giri
8%
Javokhir Sindarov
4%
Andrey Esipenko
4%
Matthias Blübaum

The Candidates Tournament is the most prestigious event behind the World Championship itself. It is 8 player double round robin tournament that determines the World Championship challenger in the next cycle.

Current player rankings and Elo scores are:

  • Hikaru Nakamura (#2) - 2810

  • Fabiano Caruana (#3) - 2795

  • Praggnanandhaa R (#6-8) - 2760

  • Anish Giri (#6-8) - 2760

  • Wei Yi (#9) - 2754

  • Javokhir Sindarov (#22) - 2726

  • Andrey Esipenko (#35) - 2695

  • Matthias Blübaum (#44) - 2678

However Candidates tournaments are usually pretty chaotic and often the biggest favorites do not win.

* Hikaru Nakamura or other player who qualifies via the rating spot (~99% certain it will be Hikaru).

** Praggnanandhaa R or other player who qualifies via FIDE Circuit spot (~99% certain it will be Pragg).

  • Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a player steps down before the tournament and is replaced, the market options will be updated to replace the old player with the new player.

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How does this work if a player steps down before the tournament and is replaced? This happens in like 1 in 3 candidates tournaments?

@bens I will replace the old player with the new player. But I think it is very unlikely in this edition when there are no covid issues or magnus not wanting to participate.

@Weezing it happened in 4 of the last 8 candidates tournaments 🤷‍♂️

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