These options resolve YES if Donald Trump says the exact sequence of words during his upcoming 2025 address to a joint session of Congress, currently scheduled for March 4th.
Technically, the address to Congress after a new presidential inauguration is not an official "State of the Union", but I wanted to keep the market title simple (& Wikipedia calls it an "Unofficial State of the Union Address").
You can add your own options, but note: (1) I will be strict with resolutions & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.
Resolution may take a few days as I'd like to reference the transcript.
For reference, here is the transcript for Trump's 2017 address to Congress.
Resolution rules:
Needs to be exact same words (in order): "laughing at all of us" does not count for "laughing at us".
Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning", and "Project 2025's ideas" doesn't count for "Project 2025".
However, any punctuation is fine ("Billions! And billions..." counts for "billions and billions"), and contractions also count as the expanded words ("what's" is equivalent to "what is").
An abbreviation is its own word: "MAGA" does not match "Make America Great Again", "LGBT" does not match "LGBTQ".
Different ways of transcribing the same word count: "January 6th" matches "January sixth".
To add flexibility to an answer, use parentheses or an "or". So " 'Free lunch(es)' or 'school lunch(es)' " matches "free lunches", "school lunch", & etc.
Does not resolve on any single transcript—if a case is unclear I will listen to what he says and aim to consider what a reasonable transcription would be. Mispronunciations do not count, if I can clearly tell what he is trying to say that is the word that counts. If it would be similarly reasonable to transcribe things two different ways, likely both will count for YES.
Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): OpenAI vs AI Clarification:
The transcript must match the words exactly as outlined in the resolution criteria.
If the transcript includes OpenAI, it will not be considered equivalent to AI.
Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
Exact Word Matching: All words must appear exactly as specified. Variations such as possessives (e.g. Melania’s vs Melania) will not count.
Important Note: This clarification reinforces that different forms (plural, possessive, etc.) are considered distinct and will not resolve as a YES.
1,000
3.00@traders looks like sg is going to use this for the manifold TV livestream & pushed the close time to be after the speech so it can be used for livetrading. i am guessing submitters don't mind much bc options were set to be so cheap, but make sure to NOT leave any limit orders up tonight!!
@SG is setting up a Manifold watch party for the SOTU (possibly on Manifold TV? not sure) tmrw night, check out the discord for details
"And later this week, I will also take historic action to dramatically expand production of critical minerals and RARE EARTHS here in the U.S.A"
@AxelAhlqvist Which option is this supposed to resolve YES? "rare" and "earths" weren't in the list?
@10thOfficial ah thanks for flagging that! i see it was transcribed differently. in a sec i'll find the exact timestamp to confirm
@traders I did my first pass at resolutions. It's entirely possible I made a mistake (or I was referencing a faulty transcript), so please take a look and LMK what you disagree with.
NOTE: there were several options that were bet the wrong way (like always, because livetrading is hard). Here's a list, so you can correct me if I made a mistake (send me a link to a timestamp).
These were all bet down <5%, but show up in the transcript:
Immigration
and frankly we
mortgage
White
These were bet up at 99%, but I resolved them NO. These might be non-trivially controversial, but please read the rules carefully, the words have to be an exact match. Plurals, possessives, and other forms of the word do not count! I could not find any references to:
"Ivanka" or "Melania" or "Barron" ("Melania's" doesn't count)
"Rate" ("Rates" doesn't count)
"TSMC" ("Taiwan Semiconductors" does not count)
"Artificial intelligence" or "AI" ("OpenAI" does not count)
Please let me know what I got wrong. (If what I got wrong is "the rules are dumb plurals should count" I dunno what to say rules are rules bet on a market with different rules).
@evan if you can find a timestamp LMK! I am primarily using the NYT transcript (cross-referencing the stream for ambiguous cases) so it's possible they just missed a word.
@BlueDragon Do you have a timestamp, I can only find "Melania's". The rules are fairly precise that the form of the word has to be exact. Plurals/possessives don't count. But there may have been another that I missed?
@Ziddletwix nope, Melania’s is what I saw.
You ran a great market and I totally respect it, so take this tiny point for what it’s worth:
Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning", and "Project 2025's ideas" doesn't count for "Project 2025".
A “tense” in grammar is applied to verbs, so resolved doesn’t count for resolve. You did not mention possessives except through the example “Project 2025’s, hence I missed it and wasn’t expecting it.
Doesn’t matter I lost lots of Mana by being unambiguously wrong ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. But in this case, I think not counting possessives was a little weird.
@CryptoNeoLiberalist I think others missed this, but he called the Butler assassin “sick and deranged.”
I'll use this thread for cases that aren't 100% clear as I go through it.
"OpenAI" does not count for "AI". Are there any other mentions I missed? otherwise it resolves NO