I looked for what information I could find. It seems there are no official numbers for this information, only guesses and "projections" that may as well be made up.

I'm going to resolve 200k and 250k to Yes and the rest N/A. I have a suspicion the original market creator would have ruled a little more definitively on some of the options, but as a moderator stepping into someone else's market, I have to balance fairness with the reality of the complete lack of evidence.

@ChristopherRandles Your analysis makes some good points but in my research I learned that Q1 and Q2 figures which several sources repeated were based only on US sales and the international launch only began with pre-orders in the 2nd half of June 2024. It seems totally plausible to me that international sales in Q3 may have resulted in Q3's sales figure being higher than the Q2 sales that were US-only. But the claimed 370k still feels high and I don't see any additional strong claims from anyone, that Q4 was a significant sales period.

@Eliza I largely agree.
I put some discussion at
https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

which agrees there was expansion to other countries and I conceded over 275k sales by q3 were likely. It also seems like they ordered parts for ~500k or so and have not reordered parts believing they have made more than lifetime sales before the next version if there is a next version.

I agree with N/A'ing 300k to 400k as we just cannot tell but less sure about 450k

They are still available and I think it is clear that sales are tailing off after they opened up sales to other countries in q3 2024. So the pattern if we assume that 370k sales figure is correct would be
2024 q1 100000
2024 q2 80000
2024 q3 190000
if they reached the 450k in 2024 then 2024 q4 would be 80k and maybe sales would continue to tail off to say 40k 20k 10k 5k in the 4 quarters of 2025. If they only had 500k made then this pattern might suggest they would have run out of stock by now though it is close and this could be possible if they made more than 500k or maybe if the 2025 sales per quarter were only 30k 10k 5k 5k.

While this is ambiguous about 450k sales more time with sales continuing and maybe some more clues released might allow it to become possible to reach a conclusion. But N/Aing it also seems fairly reasonable.

@mods Any idea how we can expect to resolve this since the creator is gone?

The latest estimate I can find is 370,000, with 50,000 more expected by the end of the year: Vision Pro reaches expected production target as Apple shifts supply chain focus - 9to5Mac.

But it seems very unlikely that we'll get an official count from Apple.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 if we don't get an exact number, maybe the best way is just to cancel it..

@TheWabiSabi We will resolve as many as possible and if there are some we cannot determine, those could be N/A'd. If there are actual figures available in the near future, ping again.

According to sources, Apple component manufacturers had supplied enough parts for at least 500k Vision Pro headsets by October 2024, but had only actually sold around 370k. This had left "tens of thousands of undelivered parts" still awaiting use.

Apple reportedly believes it has now manufactured enough components to meet the Vision Pro's overall expected lifetime sales, which are lower than expected.
https://www.eurogamer.net/apple-vision-pro-3500-headset-reportedly-no-longer-in-production-as-stock-piles-up#:~:text=According%20to%20sources%2C%20Apple%20component,undelivered%20parts%22%20still%20awaiting%20use.

Q1 ~100k
Q2 ~ 80k

500k enough for lifetime sales. Wow! In that case, that 370k seems surprisingly high.
Tailing off demand after initial surge of interest and preorders being filled as assembled at beginning? Seems more likely.

Even flat sales rate 180k /6 months * 10 months is only 300k.
370k seems more like an assembled parts number but lots unsold.

Of course it could be the 370k is correct and the other figures and/or info suggesting tailing off demand are wrong. Could be wrong in other ways too. Guess we will wait and see what info emerges.

@ChristopherRandles So....we could probably resolve the 1 million to No, and the 100k, 150k to Yes? And the rest we can maybe just keep waiting? It seems like the 500k is also No, did other markets about that resolve yet?

@Eliza
https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-apple-sell-500000-units-of-vis resolved no
but https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h hasn't resolved or closed yet but perhaps that is because it goes to 20 Jan 2025

I would agree re 1M, 100k and 150k.
https://sherwood.news/tech/apple-vision-pros-us-sales-drop-quarter-over-quarter/
shows more what I would expect as assembly finishes off the pre-order queue which suggests the 200k is not certain enough to resolve yet.

@ChristopherRandles I resolved the 500k, 1 million, 100k, and 150k. We can keep waiting on the others. We'll get closer eventually.

@Eliza How long do we want to wait?

Gizmodo reporting, "The market analyst firm IDC told Bloomberg the Apple Vision Pro has yet to sell 100,000 units."

Seems deceptive. The Bloomberg article that this Gizmodo report cites says "has yet to sell 100,000 units in a quarter since its launch". It's been been available for 3 financial quarters

somewhat related ☺️ -> /Soli/what-will-be-true-about-my-experien

Looks like the market maker is gone

You should add some finer options between 500K and 1M I think, given the steep drop.

Where will you get this data from?

How the hell is this 1 million option so high????