Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025?
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Ṁ16k
Sep 1
78%
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GPT-5 with scaffolding or access to tools counts as long as GPT-5 is making real decisions.

Resolves No if GPT-5 doesn’t score Bronze or higher, or if it does not does not exist by then, or nobody makes an IMO attempt by the end of August 2025

  • Update 2025-03-01 (PST): - o3 or future o series models do not count as GPT-5 for this question. Models called GPT-4x would not count. If OpenAI abandons the GPT-X naming scheme and comes out with a new flagship model to replace GPT-4 that's not part of the o series, that counts.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

I have seen 2 people claiming they reached gold (35/42) with scaffolding of public models

@qumeric the people i've seen claiming this have been "kinda cheating", eg giving the model hints as to what direction to attempt to solve the problem from. if you know cases not like that i'd be curious to see them. others just take much more than 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems

o3 or future o series models do not count as GPT-5 for this question. GPT-4x would not count. If OpenAI abandons the GPT-X naming scheme and comes out with a new flagship model to replace GPT-4 that's not part of the o series, that counts.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@ahalekelly If gpt5 can use reasoning models like it uses search or other features, so you can get it to solve the imo through o3, does it count?

@Bayesian hmm no, since it wouldn't be GPT-5 doing the solving

Is it fine if it’s a math-specialized version of GPT-5 (involving math-specific post training consisting of, say, <5% of pretraining compute)?

Yeah that sounds reasonable

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