How will this be resolved if the US AISI is renamed and/or their work is moved over to a different federal organization?

@ahalekelly This question appears to be much more pertinent; thoughts?

The AISI has been gutted/ceased to exist; it has been replaced by the Center for AI Standards and Innovation. The leadership (at least) of the AISI has been removed, and the (former) AISI director now works at Anthropic.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/elizabeth-kelly-dc/

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaidirector/ai-director-leaving

Trump is requesting 325,000,000 less this year for NIST as well (page 25) https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2026-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2026-BUD.pdf

@ahalekelly does this count as being shutdown?

@ItsMe From Wikipedia:

Under President Trump, plans for members of the agency to attend the February AI Action Summit in Paris February 2025 were scrapped.[20] The US and the UK refused to sign the summit's final communique. US Vice President JD Vance said "pro-growth AI policies" should be prioritised over safety.[21]

The name of the agency was changed in June 2025 to the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) and its mission transformed.[22] According to Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, "For far too long, censorship and regulations have been used under the guise of national security. Innovators will no longer be limited by these standards. CAISI will evaluate and enhance US innovation of these rapidly developing commercial AI systems while ensuring they remain secure to our national security standards."[23][24] The US Department of Commerce stated that CAISI would represent American interests internationally, guarding against burdensome and unnecessary regulation of US technologies by foreign governments. It collaborates with the NIST Information Technology Laboratory.[24]

Scale AI Partnering with the U.S. AI Safety Institute to Evaluate AI Models

@DavidJames thanks for asking. Trying to decide if it was Trump’s doing could be contentious, so I will change the question to “If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?”

(Current question is “If elected, will Trump shut down the US AI Safety Institute in 2025?”)

If congress passes a budget in 2025 with zero funding for a future year, that would count as announcing a shutdown, but a presidential budget request wouldn’t count.

Resolution question: What if, say, Trump cuts future funding in late 2025 but the Institute has funding through the end of the year?

Does the resolution criteria care exactly who shuts it down? Does it matter by what mechanism it is shut down?

My intuition is this depends largely on what Trump's advisors would say. Would anyone like to share any stories or commentary on this?