Will there be video evidence strongly implying that Joe Biden regrets dropping out of the presidential race, before the end of 2025?
Some things that would make this resolve YES:
Biden says he would have won had he been the nominee
Biden says it was a mistake to drop out
If nothing like this comes out, resolves NO at the end of 2025.
Things that wouldn't count (not direct enough):
Biden says top Democrats shouldn't have put pressure on him to drop out
Biden says he wasn't too old to run
I will not bet here.
1,000
3.00@Scipio11 @traders Yeah, some people have brought up some issues with this, I should have said this earlier but let's keep the discussion in the main market (https://manifold.markets/bagelfan/if-kamala-harris-loses-will-joe-bid?play=true)
@traders An interview recently came out where Biden states "I think that I... would have beaten Trump, could have beaten Trump" (see here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJsdnmp0zps).
As per the description, I will be resolving this to Yes, unless someone can convince me otherwise in the next day or so.
Some things that would make this resolve YES:
Biden says he would have won had he been the nominee
...
@bagelfan (I don't have a stake in this market currently.)
I don't think this should suffice. The quote continues: "and I believe Kamala could have beaten Trump, would have beaten Trump." So it's clear that he's not using "would" in the usual sense here, and it's clear from the overall quote that he doesn't think his chances were better than VP Harris' chances.
(Maybe the bit about VP Harris is disingenuous, an attempt at being diplomatic, and only "I would have beaten Trump" is honest. In my view this is too speculative to suffice for market resolution, though.)
@Scipio11 @traders Yeah, some people have brought up some issues with this, I should have said this earlier but let's keep the discussion in the main market (https://manifold.markets/bagelfan/if-kamala-harris-loses-will-joe-bid?play=true)
