Resolves YES if any meaningful connection between the two incidents emerges (including being the same person).
I will not bet in this market, so as to remain objective over what constitutes a "connection".
-Things like correspondence between the two shooters or common membership in an organization would probably be sufficient.
-Things like "grew up in the same state" or "are from similar cultural milieus" would probably not be sufficient.
-A reference to the other shooting in a manifesto by one of the shooters would not on its own be sufficient for a YES resolution, although if they're, say, in the same online milieu and knew each other parasocially, that might be enough for a YES resolution.
-If there's some unhinged gray area I reserve the right to resolve to 50% or another PROB, according to my best judgment.
Inspired by Laura Loomer, of all people: https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/2001022435512963334
Resolves as to my best judgment at the end of March. Does not require conviction / confession / >99% confidence that the suspect is accurate, etc.
1,000
3.00@Eliza I don’t see how it could be a coincidence that the same rental car would be seen at both shooting locations as reported by NYT. New England is small but not that small.
https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/brown-and-mit-shooters-confirmed-to?r=YmVucw
Bayesian's polymarket clone on whether they'll be confirmed to be the same person
@JimHays hmm... not the intent of the market, so probably not, unless, like, they knew each other on discord and one was inspired by the other or some such thing? if it falls into some increasingly ambiguous gray area between "copycat crime" and "connected crimes" then I may resolve to PROB like 50%, but I think that's unlikely given that the two crimes appear completely different in style (one was in the middle of class in the daytime and the other was at night in a private residence?)
@bens Maybe copycat would be the wrong term, but I’m thinking about if the second shooter has a manifesto and referenced the first, might that contribute towards YES, or not really?
@JimHays hmmm... ya I mean if they knew each other parasocially? Like, if the manifesto said "My comrade _____'s valiant attack at Brown was a call to arms againt the physicists of the world" or something...? I think it would have to depend on context. But I might resolve to PROB in a situation where it's genuinely ambiguous to what extent they knew each other. But the intent of the market was more like "are they part of the same paramilitary group". If one references the other in their manifesto, I think it would take something at least like "being part of the same online movement even if they didn't know each other in person" to resolve to PROB or YES. Just citing the other as inspiration wouldn't cut it.