Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, President Donald Trump grants a pardon to any member of his administration who is facing prosecution for contempt of court. The pardon must be officially documented and publicly reported by credible news sources. If no such pardon is granted by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
The pardon must be related to the contempt of court prosecution. For example, if someone in his admin is being prosecuted for corruption/murder/embezzlement/whatever, and during the trial they're also found in contempt of court, and Trump pardons them, I would not resolve YES (that's really just against the spirit of the question lol). This is about the action taken by the administration in defiance of court orders.
I will not bet in this market to remain objective.
1,000
3.00The CRS claims that presidential pardons do not apply to civil contempt sanctions: https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/LSB/PDF/LSB11271/LSB11271.2.pdf
That still leaves criminal, but thought that was interesting.
@Sketchy this is a fascinating and surprisingly accessible read: https://openyls.law.yale.edu/bitstream/handle/20.500.13051/4785/NicholasRParrilloTheEndga.pdf