This question resolves YES if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2025. Otherwise resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.
The next Israeli elections to the Knesset are not scheduled until late 2026, but Israel has had a recent history of snap elections.
Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
Temporary cessations of the Prime Minister position that are trivial (e.g., similar to a US Vice President acting as President during short-term absences) will not resolve the market to YES.
If the Prime Minister ceases to be PM for a non-trivial period, the market resolves to YES, even if there is an agreement for Netanyahu to return as PM later.
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3.00@JussiVilleHeiskanen Unless the period is really really trivial like how a US VP becomes acting president during surgeries of the President. But otherwise yes, if the PM ceases to be PM then this resolves YES, even if there is an agreement that he'll be PM again later.