Will Justin Trudeau cease being PM before Joe Biden ceases being President?
Will Justin Trudeau cease being PM before Joe Biden ceases being President?
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Ṁ8791resolved Feb 19
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Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
Justin Trudeau will cease being PM if an interim leader is appointed.
The likely outcome is a leadership race resulting in Trudeau's departure as PM around March or April.
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@AndrewHebb I just confirmed after reading Wikipedia that neither of these people was PM until after a leadership vote.
The likelihood of the Liberals voting for a new leader before Trump's inauguration is close to zero.
@AndrewHebb that all depends if they decide to appoint an interim leader. I think most likely outcome is they will announce a leadership race that will result in the end of him being PM, around March or April.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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