@chrisjbillington question ready for closing

@hidetzugu Market resolves NO at end of 2025 if no recession is retrospectively declared before then.

Have updated the title to make this more obvious, now that 2024 is over.

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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M

10Y-3M about to "uninverse"? Does it have a significantly better "predictive" power than 10Y-2Y @Peregrine?

Edit: Sorry commented on the wrong market

Fun chart: https://x.com/bravosresearch/status/1848047330794385494

(even if true, it might still take months)

@adssx

1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about "soft landings" unless the economy already looked like it was heading towards a recession.

2 - Notice all the smaller spikes and the +1y delay between the late 2006 spike and the 2008 recession. The fed has had varying success with soft landings.

3 - News is not a pure signal. We don't know if external forces like subscriptions rates or politics were driving mentions of "soft landings" and "recessions".

Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.

Similar Polymarket Q is at 6%. This suggests that this market thinks there is a ~15% chance that a recession will start in Q4?
https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2024-1

@nic_kup The polymarket question resolves based on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth rather than depending on the NBER committee call. Another difference is this market allows for the recession to start in 2024, rather having both Q3 and Q4 fall under some criteria.

Yeah, see also

@PlainBG For the second point: that is what I mean by saying this market believes there is a ~15% chance that a recession will start in Q4 (which i think is too high)

@nic_kup it's 3% if you compare the markets on GDP criteria. The rest of the difference is from the NBER criteria

@jack woah crazy. Should probably read up on that lol

@nic_kup Nice and vague: The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.

Has the Recession Started? by Emmanuel Saez and Pascal Michaillat.

"With August 2024 data, our indicator is at 0.54pp, so the probability that the US economy is now in recession is 48%. In fact, the recession may have started as early as April 2024."

See also this modified indicator of the modified indicator: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/key-recession-indicator-gives-stronger-recession-signal-august

I guess you can always tweak the data and build a new indicator concluding whatever you want, but Saez and Michaillat are serious economists and not Zero Hedge permabears so...

Sahm rule: 0.57 with the today' job report ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME ).

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Aug 2024 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

In 2019 I was spending roughly $250 per month on onlyfans but now in 2024 Im spending on average $2784 per month. This is an insane increase and it’s all due to Joe Biden’s handling of the economy. Remember this when you’re in the voting booth this November

@CryptoNeoLiberalist Sounds like policy wise you’re advocating for a hands off approach to the situation after spending too much money on porn.

Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-gdp-unexpectedly-revised-higher-bizarre-surge-personal-consumption

10Y-2Y is now just above 0 for the first time since July 2022: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

10Y-3M is still negative and shows no sign of going up: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M

U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different

I wonder if someone has ever looked at newspapers headlines and analyzed the frequency of the phrase "this time is different" and the likelihood of an NBER recession in the next 12 months.

Isn't it hilarious how people keep repeating the same mistakes xD. Also, I wonder what the next revision will look like and what the true payroll numbers for the last few months actually are.

Isn't it hilarious how people keep repeating the same mistakes xD

It is!

We're talking about Manifold, right?

Do we know how good prediction markets are at forecasting recessions? Questions I found on Metaculus closed 1y before the target date so it's hard to compare.

Probably just as bad as predicting everything else lol