2024-2025 NBA Playoffs First round prop bets

Ṁ2435

May 31

83%

Damian Lillard plays at least 60 minutes

79%

Lakers lose

75%

OKC average point differential > 12

73%

A top 2 seed is upset

61%

Celtics have the best or second best net rating

61%

Lebron or Luka miss >20% of Laker's first round minutes

57%

Total point differential in any series is <10

55%

At least 3 upsets

55%

A player scores at least 55 points

50%

A team comes back from 2 games down to win the series

45%

Jokic leads in PPG+APG

45%

SGA *or* Giannis lead in PPG

45%

Over 4.5 overtimes

43%

Bronny sighting (>10 minutes total played)

41%

3 or more sweeps (4-0 wins)

31%

Kawhi plays at least 80% of all first round minutes for the Clippers

27%

Warriors lose

25%

Knicks-Pistons is decided in game 7

22%

Nuggets lose

15%

Warriors lose in 6 games or less

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_playoffs?useskin=vector#First_round

Update 2025-04-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
- Time Requirement: The market will be resolved based on a total of more than 10 minutes played across the entire series.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@dlin007 i should clarify this means >10 mins across the entire series

My special contrarian prediction for the first round is Warriors are going to lose quite easily

bought Ṁ20 NO

@dlin007 wanna define some terms for “easily”? Like, would you place odds on Warriors win 2 or fewer games? (Truly “easily” might be 1 or fewer but it’s tough, some 4-2s are ez and some are hard fought)

(I am basically getting caught up on the season now so have no real insight but I believe yours is indeed the contrarian position so I’d blindly take the mainstream one)

@Ziddletwix "expert predictions"

warriors are also ~60% favorites on oddschecker

my prediction is they lose in 6 games or less, and that my subjective judgement is they lost easily. bunch of ways to quantify that e.g point differential, time spent leading, prediction market odds trends etc

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