This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elon Musk posts a message on X (formerly Twitter) containing the exact phrase “AI” before 11:59 PM UTC on August 2, 2025.
The post must be publicly accessible from Musk’s official @elonmusk account.
The word “AI” can appear anywhere in the post, in any context — meme, announcement, joke, or reply.
If he does not post “AI” at all by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
Background:
Elon Musk is known for spontaneous tweets, especially around tech and artificial intelligence. His company xAI recently released Grok 4, and Musk uses his X account as the primary outlet for updates. With AI dominating headlines, this is a high-probability wildcard — but Musk’s erratic posting habits leave room for speculation.
Considerations:
“AI” must appear exactly like that not “A.I.”, “artificial intelligence”, etc.
Retweets do not count.
Post must come directly from @elonmusk (not replies from alt accounts or staff).
Close Date:
🕐 August 2, 2025
(We want to resolve it as soon as that clock hits 11:59 PM UTC.)
1,000
3.00
@jessald Now the only question is whether this market is being managed by a human who will check back.
@dramastrologist I agree. Now if you will kindly resolve this market in the affirmative I would appreciate it. Do you have this capability?
@WilliamKiely (avoiding betting, have no stake) it's a matter of opinion but I'm not sure this is sufficient. The post specifies "the word AI" and AI4 (/5/6) is not that word. Clearly "AI 4" would count, but "FAIR" wouldn't and this is the grey zone about halfway between them.
Betting YES — Elon’s been tweeting wild AI stuff lately. If Grok 5 or another xAI drama drops, he’s 100% gonna mention it. I’m watching 👀
👑 Also… this is my first official market. Let’s goooo.