Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
Plus
34
Ṁ65652027
21%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves N/A if there is no o4 model. o4 is defined as any compute setting on the o4 model. Something like deepresearch (which is based on o3/o4) would also resolve yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?
Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?
-
When will OpenAI announce o4?
What will be o3's score on Humanity's Last Exam?
Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
31% chance
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 70% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
66% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 74% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
85% chance
Will "OpenAI o1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
8% chance
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
28% chance