Resolves to YES if, after the 45th Canadian federal election, the Liberal Party forms the next government.
Sep 11, 9:48am: This resolves to YES in the case of a minority Liberal government. Specifically, it resolves to YES if the prime minister and cabinet are Liberals, and NO if none of the prime minister and cabinet are Liberals.
1,000
3.00When looking at the post resignation polls, the A-rated pollsters unanimously show a widening of the lead. Only B-rated pollsters showed a narrowing
LOESS curve of opinion polls of voters for the 45th Canadian federal election:
Dark mode for viewing pleasure:
Up-to-date as of January 13, 2025. 30-poll smoothing factor. Square root applied to sample sizes when weighting. Highlight ribbon is of 95% confidence interval of local regression standard error (not polling margin of error).
Peter Njeim is an angry individual who claims false things in the comments and makes false assertions about me without evidence. While a couple of his points are correct, he is arguing without honor or reason. He refuses to concede obvious points. He attacks me, and then gets mad when I attack him back (and of course he denies attacking me). And as such, I blocked him.
He also says funny things like " it's no longer worth it to respond" - and then he goes on to repeatedly respond. He cannot help himself. So it's the classic case where I did the rational thing and blocked him.
(All very humorous for the casual observer - can you see his and my posts or did they disappear when I blocked him???)
@MaybeNotDepends wow, you attacked me without @'ing me, giving me no notification, how professional. I said it isn't worth it to respond, not that I would no longer respond. I simply am choosing to do something that isn't worth it.
You also claimed, without evidence, that I said false things. When I claim that you say false things, I directly, within the same sentence, say what is false, and why. This is how to properly debate, by being specific and pointed. Making vague attacks against me doesn't help your case, it just further cements that you're a troll who can't debate properly. The fact you made this comment outside the main thread is the most telling piece of evidence against you. You can't handle the debate so you in the most literal sense evaded it.
Blocking doesn't hide comments, your drivel is there for the world to see. Indeed, it is rational to block someone who succesfully debunked you, as if your goal is to protect your ego (which I provided ample evidence for in the main thread), then this is how you do it
MAJOR POLLING UPDATE:
Conservatives achieve ALL-TIME HIGH with historically low-for-Conservatives pollster Nanos Research. Proving for the 4th time that Trudeau isn't the problem, the Conservatives are genuinely popular and the Liberals are genuinely not.
Nanos Research lead (+27.4) (ALL-TIME HIGH) (prev. +25.3))
@PeterNjeim This shows that the Liberals aren't popular because of Trudeau. It's impossible to separate the federal Liberal party from Trudeau at this point in time (provincial parties are different - see New Brunswick)
@MaybeNotDepends No? Conservatives have increased their support post-resignation. That's impossible if it was simply Trudeau's unpopularity at play. In reality Conservatives are genuinely popular, leading to the current historical lead
@MaybeNotDepends New Brunswick has nothing to do with federal politics. The ruling PC's were unpopular there after various bad decisions, the fact you need to reach this far shows how weak your case is
@MaybeNotDepends it could disperse equally to other parties or the NDP, but it didn't, the lead is entirely consumed by the Conservatives, proving yet again that they are genuinely popular
@MaybeNotDepends "The Liberals" is a shorthand for the Liberal Party of Canada. The fact you transparently admit you're playing semantic games is hilarious, I've never seen someone own themselves that hard before
@MaybeNotDepends usually when a party is in shambles alternative parties increase in support. In this case, only the Conservatives have seen an increase in support. This isn't like 2011 where the NDP gained from the Liberals, this is now the Conservatives gaining from the Liberals. Since you admitted to being a troll I don't think there's much more to discuss here
@PeterNjeim It's not semantics. The Liberals have provincial wings that have varying relations with the federal party. I think the connection in NB is fairly strong. By contrast, in BC they dumped the name because they wanted to be different (and are a rightwing party).
@PeterNjeim I'm not a troll. I'm one of the top 100 prediction market traders in the world (per profits) and you are wrong. I bet hundreds of thousands of dollars on things.
@MaybeNotDepends Yet you pretended the NB Liberals was what was referenced by the phrase "the Liberals", proving you have terrible English comprehension
Typically in Canadian politics, the provincial parties are lumped in and punished if the federal party is unpopular (and vice versa rewarded if they are popular). For instance, in 1990 there was a wave of NDP provincial wins with the NDP forming government in BC, SK, MB and Ontario (or 3 of the 4 - my memory isn't 100%).
@MaybeNotDepends what insults? Saying verifiably true things about your behavior isn't an insult, and you trying to brush it off as one makes it seem you like you believe the true things about you are false
You say I'm a Troll. LOL. And have "terrible English". Neither of which are true.
Are you from Canada? Have you been following Canadian politics for > 10 years? Are you a strong supporter of the Conservatives? Do you like Trump? Do you support racism? Do you believe that vaccines are useful to stop pandemics?
@PeterNjeim Keeping distance is a very common strategy. That said, the NB Liberals won a historical landslide with 48% of the vote.
@MaybeNotDepends I never said you had "terrible English"? I said your comprehension was bad (as an alternative to calling you a troll, giving you the benefit of the doubt), one of those two accusations is true.
Looks like you're lashing out now that your "analysis" of provincial politics has been debunked, yikes
@MaybeNotDepends yeah, the PC's were quite unpopular due to their policies, there's really nothing deep about it
For the public record, @MaybeNotDepends claimed, falsely, that the phrase "the Liberals" in a federal context could reasonably be interpreted to include the NB Liberals. They then claimed, falsely, that there was a "fairly strong link" between the two parties. They then claimed, correctly and hypocritically, that it's normal for a provincial party to distance itself from an unpopular federal one, proving that the link between the provincial and federal parties wasn't there in the first place, as there was distance.
They also claimed, correctly, that when a party has no leader it becomes less popular. But they used this true statement to falsely imply that the Conservatives were therefore not truly popular. This is because there's no reason for the Conservatives to be the sole beneficiaries of the Liberal drop, it should spread between the parties. They refused to engage on this point .
This individual then blocked me, but then unblocked me and sent the above message (which has already been countered, the ball remains in their court as they've said nothing new).
Since they seem to want to go in circles and lash out (they asked, seriously, as to whether one "supports racism") on a disinformation-driven moral high horse, it's no longer worth it to respond
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election
2011-2013 - Liberal party support was low because they had an interim leader - Bob Rae.
@MaybeNotDepends it's fairly obvious from the graph that both the NDP and Conservatives went down after they got a new leader, proving it's an unpopularity issue. In our case only the Conservatives have gained. Why do you continue, repeatedly, to rehash this debunked point?
I agree the Conservatives are popular. But it completely mixed up with people disliking Trudeau. You cannot separate the unpopularity of Trudeau from that of the Federal and Provincial liberals (in most provinces). And you cannot separate the unpopularity of Trudeau from the popularity of the Conservatives. It's pretty simple.
@PeterNjeim Are you saying Bob Rae was unpopular as Liberal Party leader? Hmm, possibly. But I think more likely that it is the classic case of the undefined interim leader not setting a clear path for the party and both party members and the general public being not that motivated by an interim leader who everyone understands will not even try to become prime minister.
@MaybeNotDepends Why can't you separate the unpopularity of Trudeau from the popularity of the Conservatives? You said it's "pretty simple" but the claim is so bizarre it's funny how you think just uttering that phrase means you don't need to prove it
@MaybeNotDepends You cannot separate the popularity of Trudeau from that of the Liberal party or Conservative because there are a lot of voters that are switching between the two parties (and because the alternatives - notably the NDP - are not that popular).
@MaybeNotDepends Onus is on you to prove that it's simple, onus isn't on me to prove that it's bizarre when it's trivially so
@MaybeNotDepends Got it, the NDP isn't popular, because... they share similar policies with the Liberals, therefore, people switch to the Conservatives solely because they are genuinely desired. An alternative party with similar policies to the LIberals but without Trudeau isn't a popular option, proving that Trudeau's unpopularity isn't the only thing making the Conservatives go up
@MaybeNotDepends I'm not saying anything about the intricacies of the 2011-2013 Liberal party, other than they were unpopular at that time and therefore other parties were more popular (both the NDP and Conservatives polled above them). I'm just sharing how the drop in Liberal support coincided with an increase in several other parties, not just one like now, that's my main point
@MaybeNotDepends Anyways, it seems like you've conceded but without saying so, maybe it's an ego issue? I appreciate you uttering the words the "Conservatives are popular". I appreciate you admitting the NDP isn't popular (without elaborating as to why because it debunks yourself but it's okay). What I don't appreciate is the lashing out, you keep trying to derail this discussion into some weird personal discussion, which is against every form of debate etiquette, and then you have the gall to claim that I'm less logical than the one doing mental gymnastics
@MaybeNotDepends The Labour Party won hugely, but it wasn't due to large popular support, it was due to Reform splitting the right wing vote. Labour got less percentage of the vote than under Corbyn. The fact you're confusing FPTP popularity with actual popularity is bizarre, considering you have been following Canadian politics for ages
@MaybeNotDepends I've stayed on topic this entire time, you seem to have a fetish for asking, in what appears to be a genuine manner, if someone "supports racism". The utter absurdity of such a question casts a dark shadow on your character
@PeterNjeim I of course know that Labour got less votes. They also were generally more popular than the Conservatives (and Reform) and lost a lot of their support after the election.
@MaybeNotDepends You desperately want to veer this discussion away from you being debunked to a random other topic that isn't related to what we're talking about. It's the ultimate form of admitting you're wrong, the "let me barf random words and go into a fetal position". Looks like I hurt your ego
@PeterNjeim I apologize for the support racism comment (though both the Conservatives and Liberals are very racist as parties).
I'd delete it if I could (can I?)
@MaybeNotDepends yikes, the casual accusations of racism, applying that serious term to whole swathes of people who participate in those organizations is genuinely awful
@MaybeNotDepends "let me barf random words and go into a fetal position"
Hmm... ok I'm blocking you again. Follow the science or bet money on it.
@MaybeNotDepends yeah, calling millions of people racist casually is what I consider word barf, to each their own though
@MaybeNotDepends It's confirmed, you want to veer the discussion off. Let's round this out, you were: proven wrong. The Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre are genuinely popular, in addition to Trudeau being unpopular