Donald Trump has shifted rapidly over the last month or two from presenting as "racist old man who watches too much Fox News and brags about barely passing his dementia screening" to presenting as someone who cannot string words together or process what is happening around him.
One explanation would be that this is literally what has happened to him: he is experiencing a major exacerbation in some form of dementia. Another explanation would be that he is a canny politician who is backed into a corner, does not expect to win the election, and knows that one of the main remaining escape routes from his various criminal charges is to be found incompetent to stand trial.
This will resolve YES if, by the close date (a year from this writing), both of the following are true:
Trump avoids a trial or custodial sentence, or receives a reduced sentence, either because of his poor health or incompetence (as stated by a judge) OR by winning the election
Trump subsequently appears to recover from his dementia, speaking at least as clearly as he did in early 2024 and appearing to understand what is going on around him. If this happens, I expect there to be a consensus in the news about it, and some commentary to the effect that he had previously been faking.
Otherwise it will resolve NO.
Update 2025-12-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is resolving this market NO.
The creator consulted an AI (Gemini) to assess whether Trump's cognitive performance has returned to early 2024 levels or better. The AI response indicated that:
Public concerns about Trump's cognitive fitness have increased since early 2024
Reports continue of speech patterns including tangential thinking, incoherence, and reduced linguistic complexity
Questions about his cognitive performance have not diminished and have in some measures intensified compared to early 2024
Based on this assessment, the creator determined that Trump has not "appeared to recover from his dementia" as required by the resolution criteria, and is therefore resolving NO.
1,000
3.00@Hakari reasonable people can disagree about who "seems coherent", so let's ask the sum of all human knowledge. I asked Gemini
"Has Donald Trump's cognitive performance returned to early 2024 levels or better?"
and it answered as follows:
Concerns and questions regarding Donald Trump's cognitive fitness have persisted and, according to some reports and polls, have increased since early 2024.
Here's a summary of the public reporting and expert commentary:
* Increased Public Concern: Polling, including a YouGov survey, suggests that concerns among Americans, including Independents, about his age, health, and potential cognitive decline have grown since before the 2024 election and into his second term.
* Continued Reports of Speech Patterns: Media outlets and commentators have continued to report on his use of:
* Tangential Thinking: Switching topics without a coherent narrative or self-regulation.
* Incoherence: Speeches described as rambling or incoherent.
* Confabulation: Adding details that did not happen to an idea or event.
* Reduced Linguistic Complexity: Analyses have noted a decline in the grammatical complexity of his language over recent years.
* Expert Commentary: Some mental health professionals have expressed concern over his public performances, citing characteristics like verbal incoherence and tangential thinking, suggesting the need for rigorous neuropsychiatric evaluation.
* Cognitive Test Claims: Following his annual physical exam in April 2025, President Trump stated he took a cognitive test and "got every answer right," though the specifics and official results of any recent cognitive assessment have not been released publicly.
In short, available public information, including analyses of his public statements and polling data, indicates that questions and concerns about his cognitive performance have not diminished and in some measures have intensified compared to early 2024 levels.
Would you like more information about the specific types of speech patterns experts have noted?
So I will resolve this NO.
@ijk1 I didn't mean he's suddenly very erudite this year. I meant I dont think he's meaningfully degraded since 2024. He's been incoherent and very tangential in speeches across the past 10 years.
Right now he actually seems more focused (in self enrichment admittedly). He seems to have better clarity of thought that any means justify the (corrupt) ends. The guy 10x-20xed his net worth!
@Hakari I don't think he ever had any particular internal restraint, it just took several years of political realignment to get the external restraints out of the way. But honestly it's pretty moot here and I've stepped away from Manifold for a year because considering possible world events mostly makes me nauseous these days.
I resolved this according to what I wrote a year ago as best I could: the question was would he get markedly better in observed cognitive performance to the point where "we" came to understand he was faking his decline, and that doesn't seem to be the consensus. That's all I've got right now.