This market will resolve to the winner of the poll "Who was Manifold's 2024 Person of the Year", that will be run by @itsTomekK on January 10-15th, 2025
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The top 15 names on December 31 from this market will be taken to the poll.
(unofficial)
1,000
3.00@TheAllMemeingEye Im gonna be honest all Jimmy Carter's done this year is die, so I wouldn't exactly call that PotY
@Bayesian imo you have to partially control for baseline—Trump is universally huge everywhere for obvious boring reasons that have nothing to do with manifold, while JC is uniquely "our guy"
@Gameknight exactly—the fact that all Jimmy Carter has done this year is (1) be alive, until (2) he died, neither of which has any actual substantive impact on the rest of the world, and yet somehow his markets are even ~30% or whatever as popular as the markets about the literal president elect is exactly why he's obviously manifold's PotY imo
obvs this depends on interpretation. if it's "if the manifold userbase was in charge of picking the Time POTY award, who would they select", then none of this applies, and Trump is the only choice. but that's not how i interpret the question at all—for "who is Manifold's 2024 Person of the Year", I will be accounting for their specific appeal on manifold (and timeliness matters—2024 is specifically the year of JC, Trump will be just as relevant for all the coming years)
(even though i personally dislike JC death markets & had them all blocked lol, i still think that's the easy answer)