Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025?
Premium
56
Ṁ33kMar 31
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democracy.
Group 1 drone outlined in this article https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-america-fell-behind-in-drones
Direct quote from Dominic Cummings: "There is no anti drone plan for the cabinet office" https://youtu.be/C-HhIfpBdoQ?si=rk6oS9AfgfJ7VWEk
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?
33% chance
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?
24% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
42% chance
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
74% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
40% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
30% chance
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?
22% chance
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
21% chance
Will any prominent AI researcher be assassinated before EOY 2030
28% chance