Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met:

1. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Achieved by 2030: AGI is defined as AI systems capable of performing any intellectual task that a human can do, with proficiency comparable to or exceeding human levels. The achievement of AGI will be determined based on credible reports from leading AI research organizations or authoritative publications confirming that such a system has been developed and publicly acknowledged by December 31, 2030.

2. Aging Cured by 2040: "Cured" is defined as the development and widespread availability of medical interventions that effectively halt or reverse the biological aging process in humans, leading to the indefinite extension of healthy human lifespans. This will be determined based on credible reports from leading medical research organizations or authoritative publications confirming that such interventions have been developed, approved by relevant regulatory bodies, and are accessible to the general public by December 31, 2040.

If either condition is not met within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to AI systems capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across a wide range of tasks, matching or surpassing human cognitive abilities. Unlike narrow AI, which is designed for specific tasks, AGI aims for versatility and adaptability. The timeline for achieving AGI is a subject of debate among experts, with predictions ranging from the early 2030s to mid-century. (en.wikipedia.org)

In the realm of aging research, significant investments are being made to develop therapies that could extend human healthspan and lifespan. Approaches include gene therapy, metabolic interventions, and senolytics, which target aging at the cellular level. While some therapies have shown promise in animal models, their efficacy and safety in humans remain under investigation. Experts emphasize that, as of now, the most effective strategies for promoting longevity involve preventive measures against chronic diseases and lifestyle modifications. (axios.com)

Considerations

The definitions of AGI and the "cure" for aging are complex and may evolve over time. Determining the achievement of AGI involves consensus within the scientific community, which may be challenging given differing opinions on what constitutes AGI. Similarly, defining a "cure" for aging is intricate, as it encompasses not only extending lifespan but also ensuring the quality of life and addressing ethical, social, and economic implications. Traders should consider these factors when making predictions in this market.