Last invoked by George H.W. Bush in 1992, the [Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) enables the President to deploy the U.S. military to enforce civil order. According to reporting from the New York Times and Washington Post, Trump intends to invoke the act, possibly as early as his first day in office [1](https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-2025-second-term.html) [2](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/) [3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025).
This market resolves N/A if Trump is not inaugurated President as a result of the 2024 election. This market resolves YES if Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy the U.S. military for any purpose prior to April 20th, 2025, and resolves NO otherwise. In an unlikely edge case where it is not clear if the act was legally invoked, I will lean towards resolving based on whether or not troops are actually deployed (see clarification in comments https://manifold.markets/kjz/project-2025-if-elected-will-trump#enho0k5vr2n).
Update 2025-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market End Time Update:
The market now closes at midnight EST rather than midnight PST on the 19th (3 hours earlier).
This update removes ambiguity regarding potential early April 20th invocations.
1,000
3.00If I'm reading the plain English of the description correctly, invoking it specifically on April 20th 2025 would NOT count, correct?
This market resolves YES if Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy the U.S. military for any purpose prior to April 20th, 2025, and resolves NO otherwise.
Question closes Apr 20, 2025, 2:59:00 AM
How would this be interpreted if shenanigans like invoking it at 1am EST on April 20th work?
@Quroe good point, the market end time was set at midnight PST on the 19th, but the clearest reading of the question would have it resolve at midnight EST. I've updated the close time accordingly, to avoid any (unlikely) potential confusion around invocation in the early hours of April 20th.
@kjz This market was so close to including Hitler's birthday, April 20th. The reason I brought this up in the first place is because there's buzz that he might pull the stunt on the 20th.
@Quroe got it, I hadn't considered that when creating the question -- the close time is just based on Jan 20th inauguration + 3 months.
@kjz I didn't know this trivia until today either. It's just funny [edit: or unfortunate?] that it could have mattered down to the day.
@MalcolmOcean it was asserted in much of the initial reporting on Project 2025 (see, eg, linked articles), and it lends itself well to a clear resolution. In retrospect, I would say isn't really core to Project 2025 as a document, but it is closely tied to the fears some had expressed about Project 2025 as a blueprint for authoritarianism. So I would say, interpret it more as a proxy for a clear pivot towards authoritarianism, rather than as a proxy for the implementation of the broader policy agenda expressed in the Project 2025 document.
@sesquipedalianThaumaturge an edge case would be something like, Trump claiming to invoke the act but not actually going through the proper steps to do. If for whatever reason there is significant controversy around whether or not the act was actually invoked, I would defer to facts (that is, troops) on the ground. However I fully expect that in almost all cases it should be a clear binary: either there is a signed executive order that invokes the act or there isn't. I wouldn't necessarily require the actual deployment of troops if there is a signed executive invocation of the act such that there is a broad consensus that the act was invoked (eg, in a scenario where the situation motivating the invocation resolves before physical deployment occurs).