Will Canadians with gender-neutral passports be treated equally when travelling to the USA in 2025?
Basic
8
Ṁ1972026
84%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-gender-passports-canada-1.7440414?cmp=rss
Examples that would resolve NO:
Repeated/widespread incidents of gender-neutral passport holders being detained or denied entry -- even if this only occurs for a couple months
An official government statement that gender-neutral passport holders will be discriminated against
Examples that would resolve YES:
Only an isolated incident of a gender-neutral passport holder being detained or denied
Discrimination occurs that is isolated only to non-Canadians
Discrimination occurs after 2025 is over
No systemic discrimination against Canadian gender-neutral passport holders occurs in 2025
Because this resolves based on my opinion, I will not trade in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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