Will the Democrats control the Minnesota House of Representatives after the 2024 election?
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Plus
18
Ṁ2333
Mar 1
40%
chance

Currently 70D-64R

Resolves to whoever has the most members in the majority caucus. A party switch after the election will count.

If it is a tie, and the house does not organize by the 2026 election, I will resolve N/A. This will stay open until a speaker is elected. If no party has a majority in the majority caucus (tied) then resolves NO. In practice, there will be member resignations/special elections that may change the outcome if no speaker is elected.

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https://www.mprnews.org/story/2025/01/14/five-questions-as-the-minnesota-legislature-starts-its-session
Shenanigans ongoing -- looks like the DFL is holding the house inquorate until the Jan 28 special election is resolved, and the Republicans are going ahead despite lack of quorum. This one may be a genuine puzzle to resolve.

But the Republicans definitely claim to have elected a speaker, which if true would resolve this question.

Extended. The rules work as intended

bought Ṁ400 YES

oops

Rules be confusing. It will likely be a tie but not sure how that will work with coalitions.

bought Ṁ350 NO

It’s a tie as of right now

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