i will resolve this market according to my subjective opinion. i will try to consider and understand the opinions of people commenting on this market.
i will not trade on this market.
if any of the conditions below apply for >=7 days before 2030, the market resolves "yes".
if russia occupies kyiv or control it militarily for >=7 days this market resolves "yes".
if ukraine gov seems very pro russia to me in or before 2030, i will then resolve to "yes".
Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the condition "if russia occupies kyiv or control it militarily for >=7 days this market resolves 'yes'", the >=7 days must be consecutive.
Update 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question asking for criteria on what would be considered a 'pro-Russia' government, the creator stated the following would count in favor of a YES resolution:
Ukraine joining the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Ukraine majorly facilitating or helping the Russian economy.
Update 2025-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about Ukraine giving up territory to Russia in a peace treaty:
If Kyiv is given to Russia by Ukraine, this will resolve to YES.
If other territories are given but not Kyiv, this would resolve to NO (unless other YES conditions are met).
1,000
3.00@AlexandreK : no specific criteria. but i would consider info and arguments from people commenting here and come to my own opinion.
if ukraine were to join Collective Security Treaty Organization or majorly facilitate/help russian economy, that would count in favor of resolving "yes".
@nikthink Thanks. What about signing a peace treaty that gives up a large portion of Ukrainian territory to Russia, if they argue that this territory would otherwise be lost anyway but with more bloodshed, and perhaps even more territory too? Would that make them pro-Russia?
@AlexandreK : no i dont think so. but since this market was created about kyiv specifically originally i think that if kyiv was given to russia by ukraine that would count (resolves "yes"). but if other territories are given i think it would resolve "no" (unless additional things happens that would count).
although i am curious what spider and semiotic think about this.
Your Russian is showing. Please edit to "Kyiv".
@spider : if I look at current info which comvince me that currently >75% of people in ukraine are not pro russia, and that ukraine gov seems very pro russia to me in 2030, i will then resolve to "yes".
@SemioticRivalry : updated the description, let me know if you think this doesnt follow the spirit of the deal / what was discussed.