Will pro-GOP electoral college bias diminish from its 2020 level?
Basic
4
Ṁ415Jan 1
96%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As measured by each election’s difference in margin between the tipping point state and country overall.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Popular vote at +1.43% Republican vs tipping point state (PA) vote at +1.71%, for an overall bias of 0.28%<3.8%, according to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html
Related questions
Related questions
Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2024 than it was in 2022?
27% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
96% chance
Will more Americans support abolishing the Electoral College after the 2024 election?
67% chance
Will net electoral college bias continue to favor the GOP in 2024?
96% chance
Will the 2040 electoral map differ from 2020 more than 2020 differed from 2000?
66% chance
If a Democrat wins the Presidency while losing the popular vote, will Republicans turn against the Electoral College?
59% chance
Will the trend towards economic populism in the GOP reverse?
43% chance
Will the total number of registered Democrats in the US be lower in the 2026 election than in the 2024 election?
49% chance
🇺🇸 If Trump wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?
80% chance
Will there be an electoral college majority in the 2028 US Presidential Election?
91% chance