Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the individual who is officially nominated by President Donald Trump to fill the Federal Reserve Board of Governors seat vacated by Adriana Kugler. The nomination must be publicly announced by the White House or an official government source. If none of the listed candidates are nominated, the market will resolve to "Other." Candidates may be added as the process proceeds (make your own suggestions in the comments!).

Background

Adriana Kugler, appointed by President Joe Biden in September 2023, announced her resignation from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, effective August 8, 2025. Her departure provides President Trump the opportunity to nominate a successor, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions. (apnews.com)

The following individuals have been mentioned as potential nominees:

• Kevin Hassett: Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump, known for advocating pro-growth economic policies.

• Kevin Warsh: Served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011; has experience in monetary policy and financial markets.

• Scott Bessent: Former Chief Investment Officer at Soros Fund Management; has been considered for economic advisory roles in the Trump administration.

• Judy Shelton: Economist and former U.S. Executive Director at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; known for her unconventional views on monetary policy.

• Randal Quarles: Served as Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve; has extensive experience in financial regulation.

Considerations

President Trump's previous criticisms of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his advocacy for lower interest rates suggest he may nominate a candidate aligned with his monetary policy preferences. The Senate confirmation process will be a critical factor in the appointment, as the nominee must secure approval to assume the position. (apnews.com)