Would AI beat humans at AtCoder Grand Finals (16 July 2025)
10
Ṁ447
Jul 17
34%
chance

World-class competitive programmers will compete against AI in a heuristic programming contest on July 16, 2025 in Tokyo. The match will be part of the AtCoder Heuristic division finals (9:00-19:00 JST).

Key details:

  • Contest type: Heuristic optimization (not algorithmic)

  • Participants: Top 12 human programmers vs AI system(s)

  • Sponsor: OpenAI

  • Note: Organizers emphasize this is an "assessment" rather than pure competition, though concrete scores will be produced

See this https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000059.000028415.html for

more details.

Rules are not very clear for now but I expect results to be very clear. However, if they will not be clear, it will be resolved to my best judgement (e.g. may resolve N/A)

  • Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the case of a tie, the market will resolve to N/A.

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More context:

  • Seems like OpenAI has some kind of model or system that is tuned for tasks of this kind (heuristics). Source: this came to me in a dream

  • The best currently existing AI (https://sakana.ai/ale-bench/) took 21th (top 2%) place in last public competition of this kind

bought Ṁ30 NO

I updated description. When I was creating this market I was on the go and thought it's algorithmic contest but actually it's heuristic one. I think this format favors humans.

opened a Ṁ70 NO at 49% order

If the AI ties the humans, will that be a NO?

@CraigDemel good question. I have not considered this because in human competitions there are no ties (time is tiebreaker) but in this case there might be a tie. I think N/A probably makes sense as a "neutral" outcome in the case of tie

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