To define falling out:
A dismissal from any positions associated to the White House
A public feud on any social media platform that results in a “block” of the other party by one of the other parties
more than 3 credible news reports indicating Musk is less close with Trump; only 2 are needed if a pejorative nickname is given to Elon
1,000
3.00Unresolved and extended to March 6, since it can't resolve NO before 45 days have passed after the inauguration.
@JakobBrunker Yes, but presumably the author meant the former and misspelled. Previously there was a market (by a different creator) asking about Trump's nominations, but resolved - with Manifold's blessing - to "Twitter posts". So it would be inconsistent to undo this resolution.
@skibidist That’s not a misspelling, it’s a completely different word about a completely different thing, and nothing in the description suggests they might have been thinking of election rather than inauguration. That other market you mention is completely irrelevant.
@skibidist Words mean things. I’m of the opinion that if traders rely on markets written to have resolution criteria X and the creator arbitrarily changes their mind about their “intentions” and resolves with criteria Y, those markets should either be canceled, commandeered by staff, or edited to reflect Y in the market title/description
It’s -4 days after the inauguration rn not 45
potential friction point, https://fortune.com/2024/12/27/trump-maga-base-clashes-with-elon-musk-broligarchs-h1b-visas/
(not sure if coming from Trump or T’s base, looks like latter?)