will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]

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Ṁ7495

2026

41%

chance

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per this tweet:

Will Starship make its first flight to Mars by October 27, 2026?

market resolves when Starship makes its first flight to Mars. Starship must land on Mars - any incidents between takeoff and arrival that compromise the ship (and preclude it from landing) will not count for a Yes resolution.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Starship Launch Party

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@shankypanky would still appreciate clarification on the criteria here

As others have stated, the description as currently written does not match Elon's claim (and thus I'd personally argue there's a conflict between title and description)

I agree the criteria of this question needs to change to refer to departures instead of arrivals, otherwise it is misleading relative to the tweet.

Resolution criteria so not match the tweet. The tweet is about ships DEPARTING during the transfer window. Given the window is at the end of the year and the travel time is 6 months, this market will resolve NO even if all goes well. Boo. Deceptive market.

@shankypanky Yeah, by "when the transit window opens again" Elon obviously means depart by ~Jan 2027 and arrive a few months later. So even if the market closes on Oct 27, it would be wise to wait and resolve in mid-2027.

I'm not betting on this market for this reason. I recommend either of these two markets instead:

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