20% chance of winning according to any betting site or prediction market, will be interpreted liberally, the condition is just to include serious candidates only
if some country elects heads of state named differently than a president, it will also count
Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Update:
Presidential candidates must be individuals running on a personal ticket (in many cases, they symbolically resign party affiliation).
Candidates who are Prime Ministers or similar positions, being nominated by and representing a party choice, do not meet the intended criteria for this market.
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3.00@BrunoParga No, because their party would just pick another person (unless there is a system where this is not the case?), so it would not have the effect this market is intended to measure.
@BrunoParga President is personal (in many countries symbolically resigns party affiliation), elected as an individual, PM is nominated by the winning party, which can switch PMs at will