💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES] | Manifold

💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]

Basic

100

Ṁ8713

2030

98.1%

Beeminder

98%

Obsidian (notetaking)

95%

Reddit

95%

Manifold.markets

94%

AnkiWeb

94%

rdrama.net

92%

Notion

92%

Discord

91%

Pornhub

89%

Uber

87%

Substack

86%

Hacker News (news.ycombinator.com)

85%

Tumblr

83%

Twitch.tv

83%

Hinge

83%

Goodreads

81%

4chan.org

80%

Logseq

80%

Dustloop

80%

SufficientVelocity forum

Rules (work in progress)

If the domain is still there but only hosting a simple page instead of the original product/service, I will not count that as working

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

#Entertainment and Pop Culture

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1,000

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3.00

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bought Ṁ50 NO

https://frontofficesports.com/abc-disney-layoffs-538-shuttered/

538 is on it’s way out.

If the website is still there but has significantly reworked their product and gone through multiple owners, like Yahoo or MySpace, does it resolve yes?

bought Ṁ5 NO

first thought: NO, could easily run out of money

second thought: YES, if the site is dead who cares about losing the bet

third thought: NO, there's a non-trivial chance that the domain could change (e.g. .markets gTLD changes ToS, ramps up prices, ceases to exist, etc.)

oh and there's also the chance that The Pivot changes the name...

By Lindy's law Beeminder will be around, in expectation, till 2036-12-11 or 2040-12-24, depending on what we count as Beeminder's creation date.

bought Ṁ20 YES

cool question chris

bought Ṁ10 YES

What is dead may never die

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