Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2025? (May 5)
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136
Ṁ50k
resolved May 5
Resolved
YES

Info: https://earthquaketrack.com/recent

Ends midnight Pacific time

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@JPD Checks out to me! It passes my time conversion test.

@strutheo Are we using the UTC times from the source website? Or are we converting to Pacific Time to determine if an earthquake truly occurred on the 5th?

@strutheo I assume Pacific Time because it says "Ends midnight Pacific time" in the description, but I'm bumping this because it's important for you to clarify before May 5th starts in UTC ~5 hours from now

bought Ṁ200 NO

Cinco de Magnitude

bought Ṁ400 YES

If I lose I'll get demoted to the lower league, but after a 7.4m earthquake, there have to be some aftershocks in the region, and there is still the rest of the world if there aren't.

bought Ṁ1 YES at 75%

@ikoukas same if Poilievre resigns as party leader

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 59% order

@JussiVilleHeiskanen These are now correlated events due to us. 😆

Seismograph on this swings too wildly

opened a Ṁ20 YES at 50% order

Gather 'round the honey pot! This market has the spotlight.

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 48% order

bought Ṁ100 NO

entering this market solely based on napkin math #yolo

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Riley0RgZ going by gut and nothing ever happens

bought Ṁ200 YES

@Riley0RgZ Not to dishearten you, but yesterday a 7.4m happened in Argentina, and statistically aftershocks will be very likely at or above 5.5m after 3 days.

Resolved yes in 2024

@Quroe where did that end before the spike? 56, 57?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen That looks about right from the trade ledger, yes.

@Quroe the 7.4 does complixate things

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