Donald Trump must be named in any currently classified documents relating to Jeffrey Epstein’s criminal activities that directly implicates Trump in some way. Resolution is subjective, but it will be based on information from multiple media sources.
The market resolves YES if such documents are released to the public or publicly reported on.
The market resolves NO if all or almost all relevant files are publicized with no clear implication of Donald Trump in Epstein’s criminal activities.
The market’s close may be postponed as needed for proper resolution, but it may be canceled if there remains little chance of resolving for a long time.
1,000
3.00The restriction to "currently classified documents" might need clearing up. Specifically, I think it is probably intended to mean "currently non-public documents", but these are not the same thing.
"Classified information" is something that the executive branch does. The intelligence community and the military use classified documents. Legal documents that a court withholds from the public record, such as grand jury transcripts or the nonpublic parts of redacted evidence, are not classified documents. They may be under seal, or confidential, or privileged, or just private; but they're not classified.
One claim that's been made about "the Epstein files" is that parts must remain sealed because they are themselves illegal material (CSAM, "child porn"). If, for instance, there was a photograph of Mr. Trump raping a child in the evidence presented in a court case (for instance against Ms. Maxwell), that would not be a classified document; but it would be illegal to publish because it's CSAM.
If a court were to need to disclose such an image, it might redact (censor, black-out) explicit parts of the image to make it legally publishable. It could also, for instance, release sealed grand-jury transcripts describing the image in words. That information would have been sealed because grand-jury transcripts are typically sealed; but it would not be classified.
In contrast, if (as some have claimed) there were a document produced internally by the CIA, discussing Epstein as an asset used to gain compromising information on individuals including Mr. Trump, that would likely be a classified document.
Both judicially sealed documents, and executive-branch classified documents, would fall under the more general heading of non-public documents, which I suspect is what the question intends.
The description of the question introduces a qualification not found in the title. The title only asks if he's in the files, while the description requires that he must be directly/clearly implicated. Anyways, lets look at the facts as we know them.
Trump has been (in)famous for decades
Trump and Epstein is known to've had a long-standing and well-documented friendship
Trump has had numerous connections to people involved in the Epstein case (including Maxwell, prince Andrew, Alex Acosta, Bill Barr, Dershowitz, ...). This includes wishing Maxwell well at at least one occasion after she was behind bars
Trump has a long history of creepy comments towards women and girls
Does anyone think his name only came up in the documents that are already public? Does anyone think that if the documents not yet made public were entirely exculpatory towards Trump that he wouldn't make them public?
I bet on the documents being tampered with to exclude Trump
I think people are missing that this is a conditional probability question. Conditional on the documents release, what are the odds that Trump is in them?
To determine this, you have to consider what are the odds that Trump will release the documents contingent on him being directly implicated in them.
Or, you have to be very patient and wait for a Democrat to be in a position to declassify them and actually choose to do so, and hope the market doesn't get cancelled in the meantime.
@KevinBlaw he has probably done some terrible things and is either implicated in the Epstein files or otherwise fears that their release would set off a chain of events that would reveal some of the terrible things.
But still, for at least 3.5 years, there is no way this will resolve yes. Maybe there is still 12% to be made for people willing to wait long enough, however long that is. Maybe not.