India launches a military operation against Pakistan before May 22, 2025

Ṁ14k

resolved May 6

82%81%

1 month

18%18%

2 weeks

0.1%

24 hours

0.2%

1 week

0.3%

No operation launched

0.1%Other

This market assesses the likelihood of India initiating a military operation against Pakistan before May 22, 2025. Recent events, such as the April 22, 2025, attack in Kashmir resulting in at least 26 tourist deaths, have heightened tensions between the two nations. Resolution will be based on credible reports from reputable news outlets confirming such an operation.

Update 2025-04-22 (PST): - Resolution Options:
- The market will only resolve as Yes if credible reports confirm that India launched a military operation against Pakistan.
- The Other category will not be used; if the criteria for Yes are not met, the outcome will be resolved as No. (AI summary of creator comment)
- ALSO VERY IMPORTANT: IT HAS TO TAKE PLACE INSIDE THE BOUNDARIES OF PAKISTAN. BORDER SKIRMISHES DON'T COUNT

Update 2025-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirmed that airstrikes inside Pakistan count as a military operation for the purpose of this market's resolution.

Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that they are resolving the market to 1 month. If there are disputes, Manifold will handle the resolution.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

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3.00

25 Comments

77 Holders

279 Trades

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@ian should it be resolved to both two weeks and one month ???

@typeofemale if you want to resolve partially to 2 weeks you can do that. In spirit it seems like 2 weeks is correct but 1 month is technically correct

@typeofemale I unresolved it for you

@mods can u resolve

@typeofemale resolve to what?

@typeofemale seems like they’ve launched an attack, so just have to figure out the time, right?

@ian yep! i'm inclined to go for one month, but since I have a conflict of interest I will let manifold handle the resolution :)

@typeofemale I don’t see any arguments that indicate 2 weeks is the correct resolution

@ian I have been looking for any reporting on this from before 19:22 to try and rescue my 1000 mana trapped in the 2 weeks option, haven't found any

@SaviorofPlant I am resolving to 1 month then, if there are disputes I will let Manifold resolve stuff

@typeofemale why did it resolve to 82/18 in the end?

@JoshuaWilkes nyt says two weeks

@JoshuaWilkes That was the market price at close it looks like. In my opinion it was spiritually 2 weeks but technically 1 month, so they resolved to market price. Seems reasonable to me

@ian I think this is reasonable too. I'm a bit more concerned about the justification that the "NYT says" given that we have every reason to believe the NYT is wrong (or using two weeks in colloquial sense)

@JoshuaWilkes but to be clear I am not contesting this resolution

This market was created on April 22 at 19:22 UTC. The military operation seems to have happened on May 6 at around 19:49 UTC, which is slightly more than 14 days after market creation. The description doesn't seem to indicate if this affects resolution.