Will the Rafah crossing open for civilian movement by January 26, 2025 (7 days after ceasefire start)?
Basic
7
Ṁ136Jan 27
53%
chance
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1W
1M
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The January 15 ceasefire agreement specifies the Rafah crossing will open 7 days after implementation begins (January 19). This market tracks whether this specific commitment is met.
Resolution Criteria:
- Resolves YES if both:
* Egyptian border authorities confirm the Rafah crossing is open for civilian movement by 23:59 UTC January 26, 2025
* Palestinian border authorities confirm the same
- Resolves NO if:
* The crossing remains closed through 23:59 UTC January 26, 2025
* Only partial or restricted ope
ning occurs
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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