Will Elon Musk / X Corp follow through on their bot purge & legal action promise?
Basic
10
Ṁ344
Dec 31
49%
No reduction in bot activity + no legal action
46%
Verified bots + NUDES IN BIO both reduced significantly & no legal action
43%
Verified bots + NUDES IN BIO both reduced significantly & legal action initiated
27%
Verified bots reduced but NUDES IN BIO bots still active & no legal action
20%
Verified bots reduced but NUDES IN BIO bots still active & legal action initiated
17%
No reduction in both activity + legal action

Based on this: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1775900800520262071

Lots of ways for this to go so I've added a few options based on probable outcomes (you never know with this man) - please feel free to make any suggestions and I'll get them added on.

We shall give him a deadline of this year to either make or break our magic internet point balance.

Any questions, please ask and happy betting! May the odds forever be in your favour.

  • Update 2025-13-01 (PST): - Resolution Criteria:

    • No reduction in bot activity

    • No legal action (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Details:

    • Utilizes metrics from SocialBlade to track Elon's profile metrics.

    • Bot Purge Indicator:

    • Analyzes correlation between the number of tweets and followers.

    • Lack of correlation suggests artificially inflated follower counts.

    • If bot activity is being reduced, the first profile to see a decrease would be Elon's.

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Traders - I plan to close / resolve as per my previous based on the explanations provided if no objections are heard by the end of this week.

Happy to hear any alternative viewpoints.

Full disclosure: I did use sites like SocialBlade to keep track of metrics

https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk

A good indicator of whether bots are being purged or not, is Elon's profile since it's the first recommend profile/botters will naturally follow this.

There's usually a correlation between # of Tweets vs Followers you get - we don't see that with Elon's profile which means his count is artificially inflated. If bots were indeed going down, the first profile you'd see losing followers, would be Elon's.

Outcomes as I see them

- No legal action taken
- Bots still exist and based on the purges so far - not even significantly reduced. "Nudes in Bio" aka "Dating CPA Bots" created at the time of this post are still active and new accounts with the same MO are still signing up. Verified bots (Mostly GPT bots) are still just as high if not worse

Based on the above - I'm planning to resolve to: No reduction in bot activity + no legal action

Any disagreements?

Whether NUDES IN BIO bots are “significantly reduced” or “still active” will be hard to determine when you resolve. Not really measured anywhere. If half are removed, they would be both significantly reduced” and “still active”.

@CharlieBauer Good point - I will the update the wording so there's actually a threshold and some way to measure it

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