Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO by the end of 2025?

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Ṁ5421

Dec 31

15%

chance

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Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Addition:
- Elon Musk being no longer CEO for any reason (e.g., resignation, termination, forced removal, death) will resolve the market as YES.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

#Economics

#Elon musk

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opened a Ṁ100 YES at 22% order7d

It feels like Elon is made of Teflon but the nose dive the stock is doing right now updates me towards a shake up.

filled a Ṁ30 YES at 25% order1mo

https://www.ft.com/content/ea2329e4-b4bc-4e2d-be34-e9a8ea31129c

1mo

@VictorLi Can you clarify whether if Elon Musk is no longer CEO for any reason (he gets fired, dies, etc) this market will resolve YES? I don’t know whether you mean by “step down” as explicitly he resigns or a catch all for him no longer being CEO.

1mo

@parhizj no longer being CEO for any reason would work

Losing the stock-options he was vesting certainly won't help

Is there a reason this market is so much higher than https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-elon-musk-step-down-from-being ?

Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before 2024?

8% chance.

@Heliscone It’s another whole year in duration

Edit: TWO whole years!

@Gen Oh yes! I thought it was just one year haha.

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What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

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