In February, will the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) carry out ≥5 fatal airstrikes in Gaza whilst a ceasefire is active?
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Jan 24
47%
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According to the Guardian, the deal is widely expected to be fully implemented pending high court petitions:

  • "Israel’s security cabinet has ratified a ceasefire deal to exchange dozens of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinians in Israeli jails and pause the 15-month war for an initial six weeks."

  • "The deal will now go to the full cabinet for the final signoff so that the agreement can be implemented on Sunday with the release of the first hostages and prisoners."

  • "The Israeli high court is still scheduled to hear petitions against elements of the agreement, but it is widely expected not to intervene."

Throughout the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire the IDF has sporadically carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah operatives acting in contravention to the ceasefire agreements.

This question will resolve to "Yes" if:

  • The cabinet of the State of Israel signs the ceasefire agreement (the “final sign off”) before February 28, 2025 23:59 IST, AND

  • Between the ceasefire being signed and February 28, 2025, 23:59 IST there are at least five (5) instances where:

    • At least two (2) credible reports state that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have carried out an airstrike killing at least one (1) person inside Gaza.

    • (Note: reporting must be explicit in stating the attack was fatal.)

  • If the ceasefire is signed before February, any fatal airstrike occurring in January will not count towards resolution.

  • If the Israeli High Court intervenes, thus preventing implementation of, or otherwise revoking, the ceasefire; or the Israeli cabinet and / or Hamas leadership decides not to sign the agreement before February 28, 2025, 23:59 IST, this question will resolve to “N/A”.

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Suggestion for clarification:

  • The cabinet of the State of Israel signs the ceasefire agreement before February 28, 2025 23:59 IST, AND

  • Between February 1, 2025 and February 28, 2025, 23:59 IST there are at least five (5) instances where:

The latter should be "Between the time of the ceasefire being signed and February 28...". Otherwise they could sign the ceasefire on Feb 10 and airstrikes from Feb 1-9 would resolve this YES.

Also, does this resolve NO if the ceasefire isn't signed at all, or N/A?

@Jwags thank you. I’ve revised the criteria if you want to review.

@vitamind Thanks, the updated criteria look great!

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