Can a human do that?

@MalachiteEagle I think the original question is pretty ambiguous - I plan to resolve based on "the AI can perform about as well as a good human cook in most kitchens, without needing the kitchen to be reorganized for it". I don't require that it be able to walk into any Michelin restaurant and make every dish, and I don't require it to be able to navigate an adversarially designed kitchen.

A humanoid robot using a simple coffee machine to make coffee, not huge evidence but still notable https://twitter.com/adcock_brett/status/1743987597301399852

Wait. Does he mean by directly moving pans, or by giving orders to humans? Probably the YES side is interpreting as above.

@FrancescoDondi By releasing the hypno-drones.

In 2029, will Gary Marcus be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen?

@MartinRandall If this is intended as a criticism of the criterion, it is a bad one.

He could do that with a few weeks of training. I think if an AI can do it with a few weeks of training, that is pretty much as good as being able to do it without the training.

@DavidBolin On the object level, I doubt that Gary Marcus could be a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen with a few weeks training in that kitchen, but of course that depends on "arbitrary" and "competent" which are ill-defined. Most of my evidence on rapid career switches comes from reality TV shows, which imply greater than a few weeks retraining.

I also think that being able to work as a competent chef in an arbitrary kitchen with no additional training is much more impressive. In particular it implies adversarial robustness that is hard to achieve in AI with current techniques. In humans it implies a depth of experience in cooking, linguistics, and world culture that is rarely achieved.

We're both betting NO so I think we both think this milestone is unlikely by the date. I'm not really criticizing the criteria, just pointing out that it's superhuman to justify my bets.

There's no economic reason to develop this rather than adapting kitchens for the needs of AI cooks.

Does this resolve yes if the ai can work in an arbitrary kitchen by releasing nanobots that turn the kitchen into paperclips?

I can't believe this has so much money on YES. They're unlikely to have competent self-driving cars on that timeline, and this is a much harder problem.

My personal impression: of the 5 Gary Marcus questions this is the hardest. The other four are "shovel-ready" in the sense that I think the other four may not require additional breakthroughs, but AFAIK solving the robotics problem here would require at least one major advance (I do not follow the robotics literature very closely, however)

@vluzko This would need AI to be applied to robotic control, much better object recognition, the ability to understand a wide variety of non-objects (e.g. soup, mashed potatoes), the ability to navigate an arbitrary tight space, the ability to safely navigate around humans, and major advances in robotic limb design.