Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026? | Manifold

Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026?

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Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors. Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026?

Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum Fourier Transform/Shor's Algorithm to count, and without pre-compilation.

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@xyz what does 'without precompilation' mean here?

Does this count:
https://github.com/Curtisflo/QuantumFactorization

@QuantumObserver Also does it need to find all factors or just a factor?

@QuantumObserver I don't know enough about quantum computation to be honest, so I'm willing to take suggestions. The Github you linked says it uses it uses "classical post-processing" which I guess should be fine?

Turns out that larger semiprimes have been factored with adiabetic quantum computation and quantum annealing, so I’ve changed the question to refer exclusively to Shor’s, which was the original intention.

@Yoav actually I’ll just exclude pre-compilation.

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