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@traders given the recent complications over the Israel-Gaza war I thought I would remind everyone of the fundamental rules of how this market works:

Should there be a dispute, the rules in the comments or those that have been otherwise provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

@AaronSimansky @traders As the Israel-Gaza war market the rules state that "this will resolve "yes" if both parties to the conflict agree to a cease-fire that does not have an end date and is not breached within 14 days after it is implemented". For this market, the date that the cease-fire is entered into is the only date that matters. If a cease-fire is entered into before the first 100 days, but the 14 days required for the cease-fire not to be breached overlap into the first 100 days the market will not necessarily resolve YES. If there is another cease-fire agreement entered into within Trump's first 100 days, including one that builds on a cease-fire agreement entered into prior to Donald Trump's first 100 days, that will count for the purposes of this market. continuing hostilities are not a necessary predicate for a cease-fire to count for the purposes of this market i.e. if there are no hostilities between the parties and there is a second cease-fire entered into with more terms that will still count.

Please reply to this comment if you would like to dispute or ask clarifying questions

A federal death row inmate is executed by the federal government.

This market predicts whether Donald Trump, in his first 100 days as President of the United States, will take official actions that eliminate federal mandates requiring vaccinations in the U.S.

Definitions

1. Eliminate Mandates: For this market, "eliminate mandates" means that Trump signs an executive order, law, or any other legally binding action that effectively ends federal vaccine mandates within the specified timeframe.

   • The action must be documented in official government releases (e.g., executive orders, laws passed and signed, federal agency directives).

   • State-level vaccine mandate changes do not count unless directly tied to federal action.

   • Statements, promises, or intentions without binding action do not qualify.

2. Vaccine Mandates: Rules or regulations that require individuals or groups to receive any vaccines to participate in activities, employment, or access certain public services, as instituted by federal law or regulation. To be clear this requires the removal of any enforceable requirements compelling individuals to receive vaccinations, requiring vaccination to receive government benefits or employment, or penalizing non-compliance.

@Krantz for this question, are you talking about all vaccine mandates or just some of them

@AaronSimansky Great question. All of them.

@Krantz Rules can be found here.

@AaronSimansky This sounds good. Thanks.

@SteveSokolowski Daylight savings time will be considered made permanent if 15 U.S.C. § 261 (or another statute having the same effect) is changed so that Eastern time is UTC -4, central time is UTC -5, mountain time is UTC -6, Pacific time is UTC -7, etc.

@AaronSimansky @traders @SteveSokolowski in accordance with the previous description and rules that were given for this market (see https://manifold.markets/AaronSimansky/what-will-happen-within-donald-trum#sb3er8krgq), this market will resolve YES if any change is made to daylight savings time. This market will be renamed accordingly to avoid confusion.

I added "Daylight saving time made permanent" to contrast with "Daylight saving time eliminated," and to show how stupid an idea making Daylight Savings Time permanent would be (even Putin reversed that mistake within a year.)

@SteveSokolowski given the previous world rules issued regarding the "daylight saving time eliminated" market, that market has been renamed daylight savings time altered so the name is in further conformance with the rules. If you would like to create a market based on the elimination of daylight savings time, you are free to do so.

@SteveSokolowski For this are we going to count the invocation of section 4 of the 25th amendment?

@AaronSimansky Yes, that's why it's worded the way it is. The option should be YES if he is no longer president, for any reason at all.

@SteveSokolowski OK, so this market will resolve YES if section 3 or 4 of the 25th amendment is invoked, as well as for death, resignation, or removal from office

@SteveSokolowski Are we including the bodies of the hostages who have died?

@AaronSimansky No. I think that the world cares if everyone who is alive is released.

@SteveSokolowski
The following are now the criteria for this market:
1. Market Criteria

• The market resolves to "Yes" if OpenAI's o3 or o3-mini models become commercially available to any person in the United States who is willing to pay for access.

• "Commercially available" means that the models are accessible for purchase or subscription without restrictions beyond standard terms of service.

2. Definitions

• OpenAI o3 and o3-mini: Refers to the generative pre-trained transformer models developed by OpenAI

• "Any person in the United States": Includes individuals, businesses, or entities with a legal U.S. address and valid payment method.

• "Willing to pay": Indicates that the models are available for purchase or subscription, regardless of the price.

• "Released": Signifies that the models are publicly accessible for purchase or subscription. Pre-orders, invitations, or waitlists do not qualify unless accompanied by immediate access upon payment.

3. Exclusions

• Beta testing programs, early access for safety testing, or limited access to specific groups (e.g., researchers, developers) do not qualify as general availability.

• Models requiring participation in lotteries, auctions, or application processes to gain access are excluded.

@traders Please note the following new rule:
If the criteria for an answer are satisfied before Donald Trump takes office that answer will not resolve unless it is impossible for that answer to resolve yes or no after Trump takes office in which case that answer will resolve N/A.

@SteveSokolowski Do you think that o3-mini should count for this market?

@AaronSimansky Yes.

@SteveSokolowski Ok

@AaronSimansky

The current status of government opening is available here.

The market will resolve YES if there is a notice that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down in the market time scale due to a lapse in appropriations. Notices of a lapse in appropriations resulting in emergency furloughs or impacted government operations will lead to a resolution of YES. Notices of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not lead to a resolution of YES.

@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that has the effect of eliminating time changes (currently biannual) associated with Daylight Saving Time in the United States by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. This includes legislation or actions that standardize time practices across most states, even if some states opt to maintain different practices. The legislation or action does not need to be binding or enforced in all states for this market to resolve to "Yes." The resolution will consider such legislation or action valid regardless of whether its effective date falls after the deadline for this market, provided it is enacted or signed before the deadline.

@AaronSimansky This will resolve to yes if there are any publicly filed charging documents, charging a member of the January 6 committee with any crime in federal court.